A CNN story on 10/22/2003 [Article Link] reports that John Podesta, one-time aide to President Clinton, is calling on the Pentagon to release classified files about incidents involving UFOs.

Now, before I go any further, let me get something straight. I believe that somewhere out there are other intelligent species – that we’re not alone. In the infinity of the universe, or even in the hugeness of the Milky Way, I can’t believe our planet is the only one where life and intelligence have arisen. I even hold out some hope for simple organisms on other planets and moons in our own solar system. To think we’re unique in all the cosmos is nothing more than foolish arrogance.

For years now I’ve seen the UFO nuts and conspiracy theorists making claims about the US government covering up any number of UFO crashes for a variety of sinister reasons. I certainly wouldn’t put such actions past the government – you don’t have to be an extremist to believe the CIA or the military are inclined towards keeping secrets from the people they theoretically work for. The part that I find so hard to swallow is how willing the enthusiasts are to believe in the crashes themselves.

Think about it. Let’s consider an intelligent alien race from some other star. They have advanced technologies which allow them to build and launch interstellar spacecraft. They’ve conquered the myriad problems of interstellar travel. They’ve discovered that our little blue planet has intelligent life and taken the enormous effort to come visit us. They’ve piloted their craft through the void between the stars, journeying perhaps tens or hundreds of years. They arrive here and… CRASH?!?. Excuse me, but is that at all reasonable? What, did they forget to practice how to land before they left? Or maybe their engineers, operating under budget constraints, opted not to build any landing gear. Or perhaps they were startled to arrive here and discover that we have gravity even on this backwater planet, which caused their spacecraft to abruptly fall out of the sky. Right.

I recently made that observation on a web site where I’m a lurker, and one of the sage readers there posted this stunning and insightful rebuttal (quoted in its entirety) “accidents happen.” Well, who wouldn’t be left speechless in the wake of such brilliant reasoning. After all, he’s quite right – accidents do happen. But how often? I mean, come on, do a search on the net for UFO crash stories. We’re not talking about a singular incident, not by a long shot.

So, let’s do some math. Obviously we don’t have any useful statistics regarding the number of interstellar space flights to Earth or how many of them have ended in tragedy, so we’re going to have to make some guesses. Let’s start by assuming that with their advanced technology our aliens have managed to achieve a safety record comparable to that of the major US air carriers (“Interstellar Flight – Still The Safest Way To Travel”). According to the National Transportation Safety Board [Web Link] in one class of flights in 2001 there were 10,099,710 scheduled departures, of which 36 resulted in accidents.

Now, let’s apply that rate to UFO crashes. We’ll err on the side of caution and consider only three of the more famous alleged crashes in the US in the last fifty-five years – Roswell NM in July 1947, Kecksburg PA in December 1965, and Carbondale PA in November 1974. Here’s the math part I warned you about… “36” is to “10,099,710” as “3” is to what? The answer is “841,642”. That is 841,642 in 55 years, or about 15,300 interstellar flights to US airspace on Earth each year since 1947. Now, don’t you think that a population of two hundred eighty million people might just notice 15,300 spacecraft whizzing around each year?

Like I say, I believe there are other intelligent species out there, and I’m even willing to believe they’ve visited Earth somewhere along the line – after all, this planet has been spinning here for a very long time. But how gullible do you have to be to believe that alien spacecraft are crashing out of the sky at all, much less with the frequency that some UFO enthusiasts claim?

C’mon folks, a little critical thinking, every once in awhile, won’t kill you.